Focus on the Red Zone

We're into the heart of the NFL playoffs and, of course, my Brownies are nowhere to be seen. This weekend's AFC Championship features my worst nightmare: the hated Steelers against the even more hated Ravens (i.e. the former Browns). In the other conference, the perennial underachieving Falcons made the playoffs; the Arizona Cardinals are still playing, this weekend in the championship against the Eagles. (Has anyone else noticed that 3/4 of the teams playing are birds?)

What is it about these teams? Let's look at their performance in the Red Zone.

Twelve teams make the playoffs out of 32. There are two primary aspects to performance in the red zone. One is offense, the second is defense, and, yes, the metrics are the inverse of each other. On offense, you want to score touchdowns when you get into the red zone. On defense, you want to prevent the other team from scoring. So, frequency of scoring or allowing touchdowns when you or your opponent get into the red zone are important measures. In addition, the frequency of getting into the red zone at all is relevant.

So, I've developed a RedZone Index (RZI). This index combines both offensive and defensive performance. It takes into account all the relevant statistics and combines them into a single ratio. And the result is clear: Red Zone performance - on both sides of the ball - matters.

Nine of the top 10 RZI ranked teams (and ten of the top 12) went to the playoffs: New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, Carolina Panthers, and Atlanta Falcons. The Arizona Cardinals are number 12 on the RZI index. The Minnesota Vikings were #17, the Miami Dolphins #21. Both Minnesota and Miami lost badly in the first round of the playoffs.

Clearly, Red Zone performance makes a difference. The teams that perform best in the red zone - 1) they get to the red zone, 2) score when they get there, 3) keep their opponents out of the red zone, and 4) keep them from scoring when they get there - are the winners. They finish the job. They reach their true goals.

Oh, and my beloved Browns? #23 on the Red Zone Index. A pretty good indication of how poorly the team played. The bottom four teams? Oakland, Cincinnati, Detroit, and St. Louis.

Yes, Red Zone performance is a good indicator of whether you're a winner - or not.